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Karim Abdel Gawad v Greg Lobban (Tue 09 Oct 2018)

Match won by Karim Abdel Gawad. Result: 15-13,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 47,782, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Greg Lobban: 40,187, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Karim Abdel Gawad to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Greg Lobban.

Karim Abdel Gawad won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karim Abdel Gawad played 34% better than Greg Lobban in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karim Abdel Gawad actually played at a level of 50,685 and Greg Lobban at a level of 37,886. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad changes to +5.6% and Greg Lobban changes to -5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karim Abdel Gawad becomes +1.6% and for Greg Lobban becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karim Abdel Gawad: 85%, Greg Lobban: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karim Abdel Gawad: 80%, Greg Lobban: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karim Abdel Gawad: 48,412, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Greg Lobban: 39,726, level confidence: 84%.