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James Hyatt v Fredrik Johnson (Sun 07 Oct 2018)

Match won by James Hyatt. Result: 11-8,11-6,7-11,11-8.

Starting level for James Hyatt: 8,619, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Fredrik Johnson: 12,285, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Fredrik Johnson to win as he is currently playing 43% better than James Hyatt.

James Hyatt won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Hyatt played 24% better than Fredrik Johnson in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Hyatt actually played at a level of 11,447 and Fredrik Johnson at a level of 9,250. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Hyatt changes to +24% and Fredrik Johnson changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Hyatt becomes +6.5% and for Fredrik Johnson becomes -6.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'German Masters Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Fredrik Johnson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Hyatt: 92%, Fredrik Johnson: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Hyatt: 69%, Fredrik Johnson: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Hyatt: 9,163, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Fredrik Johnson: 11,682, level confidence: 65%.