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Marcus Hayes v Colin Griggs (Sat 13 Oct 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 11-3,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,465, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Colin Griggs: 5,025, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Colin Griggs.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 74% better than Colin Griggs in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 8,595 and Colin Griggs at a level of 4,949. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +1.2% and Colin Griggs changes to -1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +0.6% and for Colin Griggs becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'North England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 85%, Colin Griggs: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 84%, Colin Griggs: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,503, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Colin Griggs: 4,983, level confidence: 83%.