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Adam Auckland v Miles Jenkins (Wed 10 Oct 2018)

Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 9-11,11-8,2-11,11-3,12-10.

Starting level for Adam Auckland: 23,504, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 19,695, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Miles Jenkins.

Adam Auckland won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played 9% better than Miles Jenkins in this match.

As Adam Auckland has played below his allowed range at 22,188, his level reduction is 3.7% before damping. On the assumption that Adam Auckland would normally have been playing at level 23,280 (based on typical behaviour), Miles Jenkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to -3.4% and Miles Jenkins changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes -1.3% and for Miles Jenkins becomes +1.3%.

Given Adam Auckland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Given Miles Jenkins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Adam Auckland is -0.7% and for Miles Jenkins is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 78%, Miles Jenkins: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 74%, Miles Jenkins: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Auckland: 23,401, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Miles Jenkins: 19,879, level confidence: 86%.