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Gregory Gaultier v Simon Rösner (Sun 30 Sep 2018)

Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 68,047, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Simon Rösner: 58,198, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Simon Rösner.

Gregory Gaultier won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played 106% better than Simon Rösner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregory Gaultier actually played at a level of 90,376 and Simon Rösner at a level of 43,819. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to +30% and Simon Rösner changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes +5.3% and for Simon Rösner becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gregory Gaultier is limited to +4.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 81%, Simon Rösner: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 61%, Simon Rösner: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 71,177, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Simon Rösner: 55,922, level confidence: 64%.