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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Miguel Rodriguez (Sun 30 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 62,972, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,293, level confidence: 65%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Miguel Rodriguez.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 52% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 68,610 and Miguel Rodriguez at a level of 45,242. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 7.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +7.9% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to -7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +1.9% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 80%, Miguel Rodriguez: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 73%, Miguel Rodriguez: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 63,948, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,595, level confidence: 74%.