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Miguel Rodriguez v Mazen Hesham (Sat 29 Sep 2018)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-7,11-4,9-11,11-2.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,545, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 40,433, level confidence: 49%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Mazen Hesham.

Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 42% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miguel Rodriguez actually played at a level of 52,701 and Mazen Hesham at a level of 37,244. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to +7.5% and Mazen Hesham changes to -7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes +1.9% and for Mazen Hesham becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 71%, Mazen Hesham: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 66%, Mazen Hesham: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,369, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham: 39,841, level confidence: 65%.