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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Gregoire Marche (Sat 29 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-3,10-12,11-3,13-11.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 63,207, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 43,032, level confidence: 50%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Gregoire Marche.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 35% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

In this case, Mohamed Elshorbagy played at level 59,237 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mohamed Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 60,422 (based on typical behaviour), Gregoire Marche played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to 0% and Gregoire Marche changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes 0% and for Gregoire Marche becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 67%, Gregoire Marche: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 64%, Gregoire Marche: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 62,980, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 43,564, level confidence: 68%.