Mazen Hesham v Charlie Johnson (Fri 28 Sep 2018)
Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-7.
Starting level for
Mazen Hesham:
40,955, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for
Charlie Johnson:
16,486, level confidence: 31%.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing
148% better than Charlie Johnson.
Mazen Hesham won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played
52% better than Charlie Johnson in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mazen Hesham was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,232 and 40,955 without affecting his level.
As Mazen Hesham has played below his allowed range at 26,093, his level reduction is 4.4% before damping. On the assumption that Mazen Hesham would normally have been playing at level 33,396 (based on typical behaviour), Charlie Johnson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 9.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to -2.1% and Charlie Johnson changes to +9.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes -0.8% and for Charlie Johnson becomes +2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 63%, Charlie Johnson: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 49%, Charlie Johnson: 43%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham:
40,631, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Charlie Johnson:
16,944, level confidence: 43%.