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Tor Stockdale v Michael McLaughlin (Wed 03 Oct 2018)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 5-11,8-11,3-11.

Starting level for Tor Stockdale: 4,018, level confidence: 33%.
Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 7,786, level confidence: 61%.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 94% better than Tor Stockdale.

Michael McLaughlin won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 106% better than Tor Stockdale in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael McLaughlin actually played at a level of 8,033 and Tor Stockdale at a level of 3,895. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to +1.2% and Tor Stockdale changes to -2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes +0.7% and for Tor Stockdale becomes -1.4%.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.5% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Buckinghamshire League' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is +0.4% and for Tor Stockdale is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 78%, Tor Stockdale: 58%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 76%, Tor Stockdale: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tor Stockdale: 3,986, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 7,840, level confidence: 76%.