SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Olivia Howell v Peter Billson (Tue 02 Oct 2018)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 7-11,6-11,10-12.

Starting level for Olivia Howell: 5,929, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Peter Billson: 17,017, level confidence: 67%.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 187% better than Olivia Howell.

Peter Billson won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 50% better than Olivia Howell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Billson was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,462 and 17,017 without affecting his level.

As Peter Billson has played below his allowed range at 9,179, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Peter Billson would normally have been playing at level 13,110 (based on typical behaviour), Olivia Howell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to -1.8% and Olivia Howell changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes -0.8% and for Olivia Howell becomes +4.1%.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Olivia Howell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.9% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Billson is -0.5% and for Olivia Howell is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 82%, Olivia Howell: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 59%, Olivia Howell: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Olivia Howell: 6,118, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Peter Billson: 16,983, level confidence: 59%.