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Mostafa Asal v Cameron Seth (Fri 28 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 27,242, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cameron Seth: 16,153, level confidence: 44%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Cameron Seth.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 47% better than Cameron Seth in this match.

In this case, Mostafa Asal played at level 24,491 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 25,212 (based on typical behaviour), Cameron Seth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to 0% and Cameron Seth changes to +2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes 0% and for Cameron Seth becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Aspin Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 90%, Cameron Seth: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 85%, Cameron Seth: 62%.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 27,242, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Cameron Seth: 16,317, level confidence: 62%.