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Mostafa Asal v Andrew Schnell (Wed 26 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 10-12,11-5,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 26,342, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew Schnell: 24,701, level confidence: 67%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Andrew Schnell.

Mostafa Asal won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 34% better than Andrew Schnell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 29,575 and Andrew Schnell at a level of 22,001. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +10.2% and Andrew Schnell changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +2.7% and for Andrew Schnell becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Aspin Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 88%, Andrew Schnell: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 78%, Andrew Schnell: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 26,984, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Andrew Schnell: 24,098, level confidence: 73%.