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Darren Lewis v Marcus Hayes (Sat 22 Sep 2018)

Match won by Darren Lewis. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Darren Lewis: 11,860, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,724, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Darren Lewis to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Marcus Hayes.

Darren Lewis won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darren Lewis played 106% better than Marcus Hayes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Darren Lewis actually played at a level of 14,608 and Marcus Hayes at a level of 7,083. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darren Lewis changes to +20% and Marcus Hayes changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darren Lewis becomes +5.1% and for Marcus Hayes becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'West England Masters 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darren Lewis: 68%, Marcus Hayes: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darren Lewis: 55%, Marcus Hayes: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Darren Lewis: 12,452, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,397, level confidence: 68%.