Todd Harrity v Joshua Masters (Sun 23 Sep 2018)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 10-12,11-5,11-9,11-3.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
32,508, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Joshua Masters:
37,123, level confidence: 66%.
Joshua Masters to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Todd Harrity.
Todd Harrity won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
33% better than Joshua Masters in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
40,015 and Joshua Masters at a level of
30,159. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +16% and Joshua Masters changes to -21%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +3.6% and for Joshua Masters becomes -4.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 95%, Joshua Masters: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 77%, Joshua Masters: 66%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
33,616, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Joshua Masters:
35,696, level confidence: 66%.