Joel Makin v Brian Byrne (Sat 22 Sep 2018)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-2,11-4,11-8.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
45,963, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Brian Byrne:
19,164, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
140% better than Brian Byrne.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
136% better than Brian Byrne in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 31,348 and 45,963 without affecting his level.
In this case, Joel Makin played at level 45,172 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Brian Byrne is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 88%, Brian Byrne: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 87%, Brian Byrne: 85%.
Final level for Joel Makin:
45,963, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Brian Byrne:
19,164, level confidence: 85%.