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Joel Makin v Nicolas Mueller (Sat 22 Sep 2018)

Match won by Nicolas Mueller. Result: 11-7,9-11,10-12,11-5,6-11.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 46,684, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 34,761, level confidence: 43%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Nicolas Mueller.

Nicolas Mueller won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nicolas Mueller played 7% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nicolas Mueller actually played at a level of 41,664 and Joel Makin at a level of 38,950. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller changes to +17% and Joel Makin changes to -7.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nicolas Mueller becomes +3.7% and for Joel Makin becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'European Club League Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nicolas Mueller: 65%, Joel Makin: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nicolas Mueller: 54%, Joel Makin: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 45,824, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 36,062, level confidence: 54%.