Christopher Binnie v Mostafa Asal (Fri 21 Sep 2018)
Match won by Christopher Binnie. Result: 11-6,11-7,6-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Christopher Binnie:
27,426, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mostafa Asal:
26,873, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Christopher Binnie to win as he is currently playing
2% better than Mostafa Asal.
Christopher Binnie won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Christopher Binnie played
28% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Christopher Binnie actually played at a level of
30,730 and Mostafa Asal at a level of
23,984. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Christopher Binnie changes to +12% and Mostafa Asal changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Christopher Binnie becomes +2.9% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Christopher Binnie: 89%, Mostafa Asal: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Christopher Binnie: 79%, Mostafa Asal: 79%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Christopher Binnie:
28,170, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal:
26,207, level confidence: 79%.