Todd Harrity v Abhay Singh (Fri 21 Sep 2018)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-7.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
31,846, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Abhay Singh:
19,236, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
66% better than Abhay Singh.
Todd Harrity won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
74% better than Abhay Singh in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
32,619 and Abhay Singh at a level of
18,780. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +1.8% and Abhay Singh changes to -1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +0.7% and for Abhay Singh becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 94%, Abhay Singh: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 92%, Abhay Singh: 89%.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
32,070, level confidence: 92%.
Final level for Abhay Singh:
19,080, level confidence: 89%.