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Mostafa Asal v Charles Sharpes (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 26,361, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Charles Sharpes: 25,799, level confidence: 64%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Charles Sharpes.

Mostafa Asal won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 30% better than Charles Sharpes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 29,728 and Charles Sharpes at a level of 22,877. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +10.3% and Charles Sharpes changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +2.7% and for Charles Sharpes becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 88%, Charles Sharpes: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 78%, Charles Sharpes: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 26,979, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Charles Sharpes: 25,091, level confidence: 71%.