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Youssef Soliman v Nafizwan Adnan (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 12-10,8-11,12-10,11-8.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 35,645, level confidence: 92%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nafizwan Adnan: 39,879, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Nafizwan Adnan to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Youssef Soliman.

Youssef Soliman won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 20% better than Nafizwan Adnan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of 41,324 and Nafizwan Adnan at a level of 34,398. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +12% and Nafizwan Adnan changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +2.8% and for Nafizwan Adnan becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA HKFC International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 96%, Nafizwan Adnan: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 83%, Nafizwan Adnan: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 36,559, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nafizwan Adnan: 39,068, level confidence: 73%.