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Todd Harrity v Joeri Hapers (Thu 20 Sep 2018)

Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Todd Harrity: 31,976, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joeri Hapers: 16,703, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Joeri Hapers.

Todd Harrity won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played 94% better than Joeri Hapers in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of 32,199 and Joeri Hapers at a level of 16,587. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +0.5% and Joeri Hapers changes to -0.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +0.2% and for Joeri Hapers becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 89%, Joeri Hapers: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 88%, Joeri Hapers: 86%.

Final level for Todd Harrity: 32,037, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Joeri Hapers: 16,665, level confidence: 86%.