Todd Harrity v Joeri Hapers (Thu 20 Sep 2018)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-8.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
31,976, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Joeri Hapers:
16,703, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
91% better than Joeri Hapers.
Todd Harrity won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
94% better than Joeri Hapers in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
32,199 and Joeri Hapers at a level of
16,587. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +0.5% and Joeri Hapers changes to -0.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +0.2% and for Joeri Hapers becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Madeira International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 89%, Joeri Hapers: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 88%, Joeri Hapers: 86%.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
32,037, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Joeri Hapers:
16,665, level confidence: 86%.