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Mostafa Asal v Nicholas Sachvie (Wed 19 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 9-11,8-11,11-7,11-9,11-5.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 26,606, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Nicholas Sachvie: 21,591, level confidence: 69%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Nicholas Sachvie.

Mostafa Asal won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 12% better than Nicholas Sachvie in this match.

As Mostafa Asal has played below his allowed range at 24,959, his level reduction is 3.6% before damping. On the assumption that Mostafa Asal would normally have been playing at level 26,230 (based on typical behaviour), Nicholas Sachvie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to -3.2% and Nicholas Sachvie changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes -1.3% and for Nicholas Sachvie becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Nash Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 82%, Nicholas Sachvie: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 78%, Nicholas Sachvie: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 26,242, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Nicholas Sachvie: 21,942, level confidence: 79%.