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Steve Horabin v Marcus Hayes (Fri 21 Sep 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 4-11,4-11,4-11.

Starting level for Steve Horabin: 2,706, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,655, level confidence: 59%.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 220% better than Steve Horabin.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 175% better than Steve Horabin in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Marcus Hayes was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,669 and 8,655 without affecting his level.

In this case, Marcus Hayes played at level 7,442 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Steve Horabin is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 77%, Steve Horabin: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 71%, Steve Horabin: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Horabin: 2,702, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,642, level confidence: 71%.