Youssef Soliman v Leo Au (Fri 14 Sep 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-13,11-13,11-7,11-6,11-6.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
34,828, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Leo Au:
39,727, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Youssef Soliman.
Youssef Soliman won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
13% better than Leo Au in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
39,551 and Leo Au at a level of
34,983. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +12% and Leo Au changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +2.8% and for Leo Au becomes -2.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 89%, Leo Au: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 78%, Leo Au: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
35,774, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Leo Au:
38,965, level confidence: 75%.