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Edmon Lopez Moller v Abhay Singh (Thu 13 Sep 2018)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-8,11-2,11-13,11-9.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 30,568, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Abhay Singh: 18,970, level confidence: 64%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Abhay Singh.

Edmon Lopez Moller won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 29% better than Abhay Singh in this match.

As Edmon Lopez Moller has played below his allowed range at 25,621, his level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Edmon Lopez Moller would normally have been playing at level 28,621 (based on typical behaviour), Abhay Singh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -3.6% and Abhay Singh changes to +5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -1.3% and for Abhay Singh becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sportwerk Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 76%, Abhay Singh: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 68%, Abhay Singh: 72%.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 30,166, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Abhay Singh: 19,329, level confidence: 72%.