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Edmon Lopez Moller v Joeri Hapers (Wed 12 Sep 2018)

Match won by Edmon Lopez Moller. Result: 11-9,13-11,11-4.

Starting level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 30,584, level confidence: 42%.
Starting level for Joeri Hapers: 16,747, level confidence: 64%.
Edmon Lopez Moller to win as he is currently playing 83% better than Joeri Hapers.

Edmon Lopez Moller won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Edmon Lopez Moller played 49% better than Joeri Hapers in this match.

As Edmon Lopez Moller has played below his allowed range at 24,973, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Edmon Lopez Moller would normally have been playing at level 27,661 (based on typical behaviour), Joeri Hapers played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller changes to 0% and Joeri Hapers changes to +2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -0.1% and for Joeri Hapers becomes +1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Sportwerk Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Edmon Lopez Moller: 65%, Joeri Hapers: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Edmon Lopez Moller: 59%, Joeri Hapers: 72%.

Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller: 30,568, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Joeri Hapers: 16,941, level confidence: 72%.