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Mostafa Asal v Karim El Hammamy (Tue 11 Sep 2018)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 11-3,11-9,3-11,11-4.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 26,876, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 25,795, level confidence: 52%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Mostafa Asal won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 28% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 29,760 and Karim El Hammamy at a level of 23,295. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +8.2% and Karim El Hammamy changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +2.2% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 81%, Karim El Hammamy: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 74%, Karim El Hammamy: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 27,416, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 25,193, level confidence: 65%.