Youssef Soliman v Ahsan Ayaz (Tue 11 Sep 2018)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-7,11-0,11-2.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
27,510, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Ahsan Ayaz:
20,811, level confidence: 37%.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Ahsan Ayaz.
Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
267% better than Ahsan Ayaz in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
45,817 and Ahsan Ayaz at a level of
12,496. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 67% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 56% and 56% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +36% and Ahsan Ayaz changes to -56%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +7.2% and for Ahsan Ayaz becomes -10.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Youssef Soliman is limited to +5.9% and Ahsan Ayaz is limited to -6.4% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 76%, Ahsan Ayaz: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 45%, Ahsan Ayaz: 37%.
A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
29,138, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Ahsan Ayaz:
19,934, level confidence: 37%.