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Adam Auckland v Wong Chi Him (Wed 05 Sep 2018)

Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Adam Auckland: 25,180, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Wong Chi Him: 21,169, level confidence: 52%.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Wong Chi Him.

Adam Auckland won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played 42% better than Wong Chi Him in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Auckland actually played at a level of 27,538 and Wong Chi Him at a level of 19,356. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to +8.6% and Wong Chi Him changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes +2.4% and for Wong Chi Him becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World University Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 63%, Wong Chi Him: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 57%, Wong Chi Him: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Auckland: 25,634, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Wong Chi Him: 20,807, level confidence: 66%.