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Declan James v Gregoire Marche (Fri 07 Sep 2018)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-8,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Declan James: 35,726, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 42,381, level confidence: 61%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Declan James.

Declan James won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 56% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Declan James actually played at a level of 48,668 and Gregoire Marche at a level of 31,111. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to +30% and Gregoire Marche changes to -33%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes +5.9% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International De Squash Nantes' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gregoire Marche is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 82%, Gregoire Marche: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 60%, Gregoire Marche: 57%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 37,624, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 41,221, level confidence: 57%.