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Gregoire Marche v Auguste Dussourd (Thu 06 Sep 2018)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-6,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 42,600, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Auguste Dussourd: 23,618, level confidence: 64%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Auguste Dussourd.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 52% better than Auguste Dussourd in this match.

In this case, Gregoire Marche played at level 37,219 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Gregoire Marche would normally have been playing at level 38,676 (based on typical behaviour), Auguste Dussourd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to 0% and Auguste Dussourd changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes 0% and for Auguste Dussourd becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International De Squash Nantes' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 67%, Auguste Dussourd: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 61%, Auguste Dussourd: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 42,381, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Auguste Dussourd: 23,931, level confidence: 73%.