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Zahed Mohamed v Bernat Jaume (Thu 06 Sep 2018)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 11-13,11-8,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 36,220, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Bernat Jaume: 26,308, level confidence: 65%.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Bernat Jaume.

Zahed Mohamed won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 25% better than Bernat Jaume in this match.

As Zahed Mohamed has played below his allowed range at 33,439, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Zahed Mohamed would normally have been playing at level 35,060 (based on typical behaviour), Bernat Jaume played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to -1.3% and Bernat Jaume changes to +2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes -0.5% and for Bernat Jaume becomes +0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International De Squash Nantes' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 74%, Bernat Jaume: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 71%, Bernat Jaume: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 35,872, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume: 26,654, level confidence: 77%.