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Nouran Gohar v Salma Hany (Thu 06 Sep 2018)

Match won by Nouran Gohar. Result: 8-11,5-11,12-10,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Nouran Gohar: 9,699, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Salma Hany: 9,027, level confidence: 68%.
Nouran Gohar to win as she is currently playing 7% better than Salma Hany.

Nouran Gohar won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nouran Gohar played 7% better than Salma Hany in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nouran Gohar actually played at a level of 9,678 and Salma Hany at a level of 9,046. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar changes to 0% and Salma Hany changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar becomes -0.1% and for Salma Hany becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nouran Gohar: 64%, Salma Hany: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nouran Gohar: 64%, Salma Hany: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nouran Gohar: 9,616, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Salma Hany: 9,024, level confidence: 82%.