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Adam Auckland v Allan Bailey (Wed 05 Sep 2018)

Match won by Adam Auckland. Result: 11-2,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Adam Auckland: 25,209, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Allan Bailey: 1,447, level confidence: 31%.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing 1642% better than Allan Bailey.

Adam Auckland won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Auckland played 230% better than Allan Bailey in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adam Auckland was taking it easy by anything up to 69%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,412 and 25,209 without affecting his level.

In this case, Adam Auckland played at level 6,102 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Adam Auckland would normally have been playing at level 7,797 (based on typical behaviour), Allan Bailey played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 28%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Auckland changes to 0% and Allan Bailey changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Auckland becomes 0% and for Allan Bailey becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World University Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Auckland: 90%, Allan Bailey: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Auckland: 39%, Allan Bailey: 24%.

Final level for Adam Auckland: 25,209, level confidence: 39%.
Final level for Allan Bailey: 1,503, level confidence: 24%.