Sebastien Bonmalais v Ondrej Uherka (Wed 05 Sep 2018)
Match won by Sebastien Bonmalais. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-3.
Starting level for
Sebastien Bonmalais:
23,017, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for
Ondrej Uherka:
15,986, level confidence: 22%.
Sebastien Bonmalais to win as he is currently playing
44% better than Ondrej Uherka.
Sebastien Bonmalais won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sebastien Bonmalais played
65% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sebastien Bonmalais actually played at a level of
24,640 and Ondrej Uherka at a level of
14,933. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.8% and 5.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais changes to +2.9% and Ondrej Uherka changes to -5.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sebastien Bonmalais becomes +1.2% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International De Squash Nantes' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sebastien Bonmalais: 68%, Ondrej Uherka: 47%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sebastien Bonmalais: 63%, Ondrej Uherka: 44%.
Final level for Sebastien Bonmalais:
23,294, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka:
15,673, level confidence: 44%.