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Salma Hany v Millie Tomlinson (Wed 05 Sep 2018)

Match won by Salma Hany. Result: 7-11,11-2,10-12,12-10,11-9.

Starting level for Salma Hany: 8,927, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Millie Tomlinson: 8,719, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Salma Hany to win as she is currently playing 2% better than Millie Tomlinson.

Salma Hany won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Salma Hany played 11% better than Millie Tomlinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Salma Hany actually played at a level of 9,315 and Millie Tomlinson at a level of 8,356. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Salma Hany changes to +4.3% and Millie Tomlinson changes to -2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Salma Hany becomes +1.9% and for Millie Tomlinson becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Salma Hany: 71%, Millie Tomlinson: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Salma Hany: 68%, Millie Tomlinson: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Salma Hany: 9,027, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Millie Tomlinson: 8,614, level confidence: 89%.