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Raphael Kandra v Karim El Hammamy (Wed 05 Sep 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-5,9-11,11-13,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 43,779, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 24,860, level confidence: 44%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Raphael Kandra won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 14% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 32,215, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 40,031 (based on typical behaviour), Karim El Hammamy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -5.9% and Karim El Hammamy changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -1.7% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 85%, Karim El Hammamy: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 68%, Karim El Hammamy: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 43,004, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 25,723, level confidence: 53%.