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Greg Lobban v Youssef Soliman (Wed 05 Sep 2018)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 40,353, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 28,601, level confidence: 54%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Youssef Soliman.

Greg Lobban won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 94% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 47,333 and Youssef Soliman at a level of 24,383. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +14% and Youssef Soliman changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +3.2% and for Youssef Soliman becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 73%, Youssef Soliman: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 62%, Youssef Soliman: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 41,344, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 27,863, level confidence: 63%.