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Joel Makin v Eain Yow Ng (Wed 05 Sep 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-3.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 44,930, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 31,945, level confidence: 56%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 136% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 58,165 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 24,676. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +24% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +4.8% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA China Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 64%, Eain Yow Ng: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 50%, Eain Yow Ng: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 46,646, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 30,965, level confidence: 58%.