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Gregory Gaultier v Ali Farag (Fri 31 Aug 2018)

Match won by Gregory Gaultier. Result: 12-14,11-6,13-11,13-11.

Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 62,969, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Ali Farag: 66,306, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Gregory Gaultier.

Gregory Gaultier won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregory Gaultier played 22% better than Ali Farag in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregory Gaultier actually played at a level of 71,444 and Ali Farag at a level of 58,441. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier changes to +13% and Ali Farag changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregory Gaultier becomes +2.8% and for Ali Farag becomes -2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Bellevue International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregory Gaultier: 81%, Ali Farag: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregory Gaultier: 71%, Ali Farag: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 64,566, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ali Farag: 64,837, level confidence: 76%.