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Tarek Momen v James Willstrop (Thu 30 Aug 2018)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 4-11,11-7,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 53,202, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 40,858, level confidence: 68%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 30% better than James Willstrop.

Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 24% better than James Willstrop in this match.

In this case, Tarek Momen played at level 51,420 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tarek Momen would normally have been playing at level 51,999 (based on typical behaviour), James Willstrop played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to 0% and James Willstrop changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes 0% and for James Willstrop becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Bellevue International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 84%, James Willstrop: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 82%, James Willstrop: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 52,978, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 41,212, level confidence: 81%.