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Nafizwan Adnan v Max Lee (Sat 01 Sep 2018)

Match won by Nafizwan Adnan. Result: 11-9,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Nafizwan Adnan: 36,360, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Max Lee: 40,006, level confidence: 63%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Nafizwan Adnan.

Nafizwan Adnan won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nafizwan Adnan played 47% better than Max Lee in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nafizwan Adnan actually played at a level of 46,286 and Max Lee at a level of 31,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan changes to +21% and Max Lee changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan becomes +4.4% and for Max Lee becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nafizwan Adnan: 88%, Max Lee: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nafizwan Adnan: 69%, Max Lee: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nafizwan Adnan: 37,821, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Max Lee: 38,238, level confidence: 62%.