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Miguel Rodriguez v Andrew Schnell (Thu 30 Aug 2018)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-6,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 54,018, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andrew Schnell: 24,069, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 124% better than Andrew Schnell.

Miguel Rodriguez won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 50% better than Andrew Schnell in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Miguel Rodriguez was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 38,562 and 54,018 without affecting his level.

As Miguel Rodriguez has played below his allowed range at 37,336, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 45,640 (based on typical behaviour), Andrew Schnell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 8.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to -2.2% and Andrew Schnell changes to +7.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -0.8% and for Andrew Schnell becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Pan American Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 85%, Andrew Schnell: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 70%, Andrew Schnell: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 53,369, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Andrew Schnell: 24,688, level confidence: 73%.