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Cesar Salazar v Todd Harrity (Thu 30 Aug 2018)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 11-8,11-7,8-11,11-5.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 40,813, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 31,650, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Todd Harrity.

Cesar Salazar won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 27% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

In this case, Cesar Salazar played at level 40,321 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Todd Harrity is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 76%, Todd Harrity: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 76%, Todd Harrity: 86%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 40,780, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 31,727, level confidence: 86%.