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Max Lee v Saurav Ghosal (Thu 30 Aug 2018)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-7,11-9,13-11.

Starting level for Max Lee: 38,412, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 38,597, level confidence: 68%.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Max Lee.

Max Lee won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 38% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Max Lee actually played at a level of 45,233 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 32,777. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to +18% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes +3.8% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 75%, Saurav Ghosal: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 64%, Saurav Ghosal: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 39,696, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 37,500, level confidence: 70%.