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Shehab Essam v Adam Auckland (Wed 29 Aug 2018)

Match won by Shehab Essam. Result: 11-9,6-11,7-11,13-11,11-8.

Starting level for Shehab Essam: 24,880, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Adam Auckland: 25,651, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Adam Auckland to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Shehab Essam.

Shehab Essam won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shehab Essam played 7% better than Adam Auckland in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shehab Essam actually played at a level of 26,071 and Adam Auckland at a level of 24,479. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shehab Essam changes to +4.7% and Adam Auckland changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shehab Essam becomes +1.6% and for Adam Auckland becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Prague Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shehab Essam: 78%, Adam Auckland: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shehab Essam: 75%, Adam Auckland: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shehab Essam: 25,263, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Adam Auckland: 25,318, level confidence: 83%.