Borja Golan v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Wed 29 Aug 2018)
Match won by Borja Golan. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-8.
Starting level for
Borja Golan:
43,446, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for
Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
26,598, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Borja Golan to win as he is currently playing
63% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen.
Borja Golan won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Borja Golan played
65% better than Jan Van Den Herrewegen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Borja Golan actually played at a level of
43,666 and Jan Van Den Herrewegen at a level of
26,464. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Borja Golan changes to +0.4% and Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Borja Golan becomes +0.1% and for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Borja Golan: 66%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Borja Golan: 65%, Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 87%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Borja Golan:
43,436, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen:
26,592, level confidence: 87%.