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Raphael Kandra v Auguste Dussourd (Wed 29 Aug 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 10-12,11-3,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 45,911, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Auguste Dussourd: 24,088, level confidence: 69%.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Auguste Dussourd.

Raphael Kandra won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 34% better than Auguste Dussourd in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Raphael Kandra was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 36,521 and 45,911 without affecting his level.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 34,389, his level reduction is 6.2% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 40,947 (based on typical behaviour), Auguste Dussourd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 8.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to -4.5% and Auguste Dussourd changes to +5.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -1.4% and for Auguste Dussourd becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Individual Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 67%, Auguste Dussourd: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 56%, Auguste Dussourd: 70%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 45,182, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Auguste Dussourd: 24,584, level confidence: 70%.