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Max Lee v Ko Youngjo (Wed 29 Aug 2018)

Match won by Max Lee. Result: 11-9,11-5,12-14,11-3.

Starting level for Max Lee: 40,372, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Ko Youngjo: 14,948, level confidence: 63%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 170% better than Ko Youngjo.

Max Lee won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Lee played 32% better than Ko Youngjo in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Max Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,182 and 40,372 without affecting his level.

As Max Lee has played below his allowed range at 22,262, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Max Lee would normally have been playing at level 31,885 (based on typical behaviour), Ko Youngjo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 27%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Lee changes to -7.8% and Ko Youngjo changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Lee becomes -2% and for Ko Youngjo becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Lee: 76%, Ko Youngjo: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Lee: 53%, Ko Youngjo: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Max Lee: 39,504, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Ko Youngjo: 15,501, level confidence: 55%.